Stocks closed mostly flat today ending what will be the worst August in 9 years. The Dow lost 451 points this month, while the S&P 500 lost 52 points. The Nasdaq lost 140 points. Today's decliners came from health-care and technology and the few winners we had came from telecoms, financials and utilities. Keep in mind, August tends to be a more volatile month because the trading volume is traditionally light. I think we expect continued volatility through the Labor Day holiday as traders, and investors return to the market and focus their attention on Q4.
Investors continued to pour money into gold through the month of August. Gold rose to a high of $1250 per ounce today and is up almost 6% for the month. Oil fell 9% for the month. Not a shocker since we can expect oil stockpiles to show a rise.
Bristol-Myers (BMY) today said they completed a study that showed a new experimental drug reduces the risk of stroke by more than half when compared with traditional aspirin therapy. I was taking a look at their chart and it's had a remarkable, but quiet run since early June. It's been trading well above it's "flash-crash" levels and has steadily maintained it's price action above it's 50 and 200-day moving averages. It's settled in a range here around $26. Given today's story, I'll keep an eye on this.
Remain cautious out there. Happy Trading!
Obligatory disclaimer: This blog is for information only. Past results do not guarantee future performance. All financial decisions involve risk and there are no guarantees. The suggestions above are for informational purposes only and the blogger is not liable for any losses incurred as a result of actual investment activity on the part of the reader.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Daily Stock Pick of the Day - Mon., Aug 30 2010
I've been reading a bit about some of the stocks in the energy space. Some of it has queued my interest in light of the BHP offer to buy Potash last week. I think there are some names in the coal space that have potential. One is Walters Energy (WLT). It's chart does not look strong at this time, but with renewed interest politically in energy resources, it might be an opportunity to pick up shares at the low, while they consolidate before making a possible rally again. WLT closed Friday at $70.54 and it looks like it may drop a bit further. I like any price below $70, specifically, I like this price in the $60-$65 range. You can play it back to the 50-day MA (about $70) for a decent return.
Happy Trading and remember: Trade to trade well.
Obligatory disclaimer: This blog is for information only. Past results do not guarantee future performance. All financial decisions involve risk and there are no guarantees. The suggestions above are for informational purposes only and the blogger is not liable for any losses incurred as a result of actual investment activity on the part of the reader.
Happy Trading and remember: Trade to trade well.
Obligatory disclaimer: This blog is for information only. Past results do not guarantee future performance. All financial decisions involve risk and there are no guarantees. The suggestions above are for informational purposes only and the blogger is not liable for any losses incurred as a result of actual investment activity on the part of the reader.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Daily Stock Pick of the Day - Fri., Aug 27, 2010
Another tough day in the market today. The Dow closed below 10,000 today at 9985, a loss of .74%. The S&P lost 8 points and closed at 1047, down .77%. The Nasdaq just over 1% and closed at 2119. It looks to me like we're on pins and needles and expecting tomorrow's Q2 GDP report to show shrinking growth. Energy and health-care names were lower, but names in the materials sector were higher. To add to the anxiety, Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian was on CNBC today and remarked that the recovery is losing momentum. Also, economist Nouriel Roubini commented today that he puts the chances of a double dip recession at 40%.
One of the few names in the materials space that finished higher today was Polypore (PPO). They develop polymer-based membranes used in separation and filtration processes in energy storage and health-care markets. A few days ago, they found support along their 50-day moving average and today closed in the lower half of it's trading range today at $27.11. I think it's neutral at this point. I'm going to keep an eye on this and see if it dips towards the $25 mark. I'd be targeting a brief run back to $27-$28 and sell at that point.
A guarded perspective out there is definitely the order of the day. This year is shaping up to be a lot tougher than I expected. How about you?
Obligatory disclaimer: This blog is for information only. Past results do not guarantee future performance. All financial decisions involve risk and there are no guarantees. The suggestions above are for informational purposes only and the blogger is not liable for any losses incurred as a result of actual investment activity on the part of the reader.
One of the few names in the materials space that finished higher today was Polypore (PPO). They develop polymer-based membranes used in separation and filtration processes in energy storage and health-care markets. A few days ago, they found support along their 50-day moving average and today closed in the lower half of it's trading range today at $27.11. I think it's neutral at this point. I'm going to keep an eye on this and see if it dips towards the $25 mark. I'd be targeting a brief run back to $27-$28 and sell at that point.
A guarded perspective out there is definitely the order of the day. This year is shaping up to be a lot tougher than I expected. How about you?
Obligatory disclaimer: This blog is for information only. Past results do not guarantee future performance. All financial decisions involve risk and there are no guarantees. The suggestions above are for informational purposes only and the blogger is not liable for any losses incurred as a result of actual investment activity on the part of the reader.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Daily Stock Pick of the Day - Thursday, Aug 26 2010
Stocks began the day today in the red, but bounced off the lows to eke out a gain. The Dow fell below 10,000 but clawed it's way back to close at 10,060 or .2%. The S&P 500 closed up .33% at 1055 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq closed at 2141, up .84%.
The energy sector was lower, however, there were a handful of consumer names that actually rose today: Home Depot (HD), Starbucks (SBUX) and Costco (COST) each gained 2% today. Today's dismal economic news showed us that while durable goods sales rose .3% it's far short of the expected 2.8% increase the economists were expecting.
The stock that interests me today is Opentable (OPEN). They provide computerized reservation and table management systems for restaurants. They closed yesterday below their 50-day MA but today, bounced nicely right back above at $51.00. They've had quite a run this year and there is room for more. In the past 4 weeks, their stock price has increased 6% and year-to-date, their up 100%. I do think a note of caution is warranted -- due to conusmer's ongoing economic woes, this stock has some risk. However, the consumer has struggled all year long and yet, this stock seems to possess some resilience. While I'm not actively trading at this time, I am building a watchlist in the event of a relief rally.
Obligatory disclaimer: This blog is for information only. Past results do not guarantee future performance. All financial decisions involve risk and there are no guarantees. The suggestions above are for informational purposes only and the blogger is not liable for any losses incurred as a result of actual investment activity on the part of the reader.
Happy Trading!
The energy sector was lower, however, there were a handful of consumer names that actually rose today: Home Depot (HD), Starbucks (SBUX) and Costco (COST) each gained 2% today. Today's dismal economic news showed us that while durable goods sales rose .3% it's far short of the expected 2.8% increase the economists were expecting.
The stock that interests me today is Opentable (OPEN). They provide computerized reservation and table management systems for restaurants. They closed yesterday below their 50-day MA but today, bounced nicely right back above at $51.00. They've had quite a run this year and there is room for more. In the past 4 weeks, their stock price has increased 6% and year-to-date, their up 100%. I do think a note of caution is warranted -- due to conusmer's ongoing economic woes, this stock has some risk. However, the consumer has struggled all year long and yet, this stock seems to possess some resilience. While I'm not actively trading at this time, I am building a watchlist in the event of a relief rally.
Obligatory disclaimer: This blog is for information only. Past results do not guarantee future performance. All financial decisions involve risk and there are no guarantees. The suggestions above are for informational purposes only and the blogger is not liable for any losses incurred as a result of actual investment activity on the part of the reader.
Happy Trading!
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Daily Stock Pick of the Day - Wed., Aug 25, 2010
Stocks fell heavily this morning after a report on existing home sales renewed worries about the economy. The report shows that existing home sales fell 27% in July -- the lowest in 15 years. The market did regain some footing as it rose off it's lows later in the session, but still logged another declining day. The Dow fell 1.3% and closed at 10,040; the S&P closed down 1.45% at 1051 and the Nasdaq fell 1.6% to close at 2123.
It gets really hard to look at the market when all you see are losses everywhere. However, I'm a strong believer in keping a watch list so that if/when the market turns up, I'm ready with some potential purchases. So, in light of the woeful economic news today, I'm looking at Dollar Tree (DLTR). Jobless claims rose last week and home sales are not recovering in a way we'd like to see. The consumer is still under pressure and facing uncertainty. Stores like Dollar Tree provide some relief for cost-conscious consumers looking to ease the pressure on their wallets. They operate 3,800 discount variety stores in 48 states with a variety of merchandise priced at $1. Last week, they reported Q2 net income rose 37% on strong sales of food, health and beauty supplies. Revenue grew 13%. It rose as high as $46 today in big volume today, fell a bit, but still closed above yesterday's price at $44.35. I'd like to see this drift down a bit to the $41-$42 range before staking a claim. Long-term, I think this stock can go as high as $48-$50. Just my opinion -- what's yours?
Happy Trading!
Obligatory disclaimer: This blog is for information only. Past results do not guarantee future performance. All financial decisions involve risk and there are no guarantees. The suggestions above are for informational purposes only and the blogger is not liable for any losses incurred as a result of actual investment activity on the part of the reader.
It gets really hard to look at the market when all you see are losses everywhere. However, I'm a strong believer in keping a watch list so that if/when the market turns up, I'm ready with some potential purchases. So, in light of the woeful economic news today, I'm looking at Dollar Tree (DLTR). Jobless claims rose last week and home sales are not recovering in a way we'd like to see. The consumer is still under pressure and facing uncertainty. Stores like Dollar Tree provide some relief for cost-conscious consumers looking to ease the pressure on their wallets. They operate 3,800 discount variety stores in 48 states with a variety of merchandise priced at $1. Last week, they reported Q2 net income rose 37% on strong sales of food, health and beauty supplies. Revenue grew 13%. It rose as high as $46 today in big volume today, fell a bit, but still closed above yesterday's price at $44.35. I'd like to see this drift down a bit to the $41-$42 range before staking a claim. Long-term, I think this stock can go as high as $48-$50. Just my opinion -- what's yours?
Happy Trading!
Obligatory disclaimer: This blog is for information only. Past results do not guarantee future performance. All financial decisions involve risk and there are no guarantees. The suggestions above are for informational purposes only and the blogger is not liable for any losses incurred as a result of actual investment activity on the part of the reader.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Daily Stock Pick of the Day - Aug 24, 2010
Stocks chopped around today, mostly in mixed trade on low volume. The Down gained .2%, the S&P gained .3% and the tech-heavy NASDAQ fell .3%.
Traders seem to be excited about some of the recent M&A activity. I can't help but think it's an ominous sign for current employees of the merging companies. Any time two companies come together, it means potential layoffs because there is redundancy in many positions. The latest news in this space is Hewlett Packard's offer for 3Par, a data storage firm. The HPQ bid is for $24/share which is about 30% better than an offer Dell has already made. We'll have to staty tuned. Certainly, 3Par will be a fine addition to either company because the storage market represents a solid opportunity to book some income and profits.
The stock I'm looking at today is Coinstar (CSTR). It traded today between $46.83 and $50 and closed today $47.38, up .4%. It's currently trading just above it's 50-day moving average and well above it's 200-day. It looks like it's been pulling back a bit for the last four trading days and perhaps it has found support here close to the 50-day MA. I like CSTR at it's current price, but given the wobbly nature of this market, I'd wait for it to bounce off it's 50-day support before staking a claim.
Coinstar operates the self-service coin-counting machines you see in supermarkets and other retail outlets. Now, they're getting into the DVD rental business, going head-to-head with Blockbuster. The Redbox DVD unit is adding a boost to their revenue base. Actually, Barron's says they've now grown into the no. 2 renter behind Netflix. They recently began renting Blu-ray discs and say that all 23,000 of the Redbox kiosks will have Blue-ray selections by the fall.
As always, your comments, thoughts and suggestions are always welcome
Happy Trading!
Obligatory disclaimer: This blog is for information only. Past results do not guarantee future performance. All financial decisions involve risk and there are no guarantees. The suggestions above are for informational purposes only and the blogger is not liable for any losses incurred as a result of actual investment activity on the part of the reader.
Traders seem to be excited about some of the recent M&A activity. I can't help but think it's an ominous sign for current employees of the merging companies. Any time two companies come together, it means potential layoffs because there is redundancy in many positions. The latest news in this space is Hewlett Packard's offer for 3Par, a data storage firm. The HPQ bid is for $24/share which is about 30% better than an offer Dell has already made. We'll have to staty tuned. Certainly, 3Par will be a fine addition to either company because the storage market represents a solid opportunity to book some income and profits.
The stock I'm looking at today is Coinstar (CSTR). It traded today between $46.83 and $50 and closed today $47.38, up .4%. It's currently trading just above it's 50-day moving average and well above it's 200-day. It looks like it's been pulling back a bit for the last four trading days and perhaps it has found support here close to the 50-day MA. I like CSTR at it's current price, but given the wobbly nature of this market, I'd wait for it to bounce off it's 50-day support before staking a claim.
Coinstar operates the self-service coin-counting machines you see in supermarkets and other retail outlets. Now, they're getting into the DVD rental business, going head-to-head with Blockbuster. The Redbox DVD unit is adding a boost to their revenue base. Actually, Barron's says they've now grown into the no. 2 renter behind Netflix. They recently began renting Blu-ray discs and say that all 23,000 of the Redbox kiosks will have Blue-ray selections by the fall.
As always, your comments, thoughts and suggestions are always welcome
Happy Trading!
Obligatory disclaimer: This blog is for information only. Past results do not guarantee future performance. All financial decisions involve risk and there are no guarantees. The suggestions above are for informational purposes only and the blogger is not liable for any losses incurred as a result of actual investment activity on the part of the reader.
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Daily Stock Pick of the Day - Mon., Aug 23, 2010
Stocks ended the week with a downdraft. Seven out of the ten S&P 500 sectors were down. The biggest sector to experience the selloff was energy, although the tech sector eked out a small gain. With crude oil at a six-week low, I'm not sure where the upside will be in the energy stocks. The slumping economy won't help much either. The S&P is down almost 4% for the year and the DJIA is down about 2%.
The stock I'm interested in this week is a big cap: Cummins (CMI). They're traded on the NYSE and designs, manufactures, distributes and services diesel and natural gas engines, electric power generation systems, and engine-related component products worldwide. CMI experienced a mild pullback on Friday, in lower volume, and closed at $79.51. It's been as high as $82 just recently after clearing resistance around $76 in mid-July. Fundamentally, it looks like they are a pretty sound company. Sales growth last quarter was clocked at 32% and their EPS was 317%. It looks like it could pullback a little bit from here. My entry point for this stock would be between $74 and $79. My first target is $82, but I think long term, this stock could run up to over $100.
And check this out: Did you know that the Shake Weight has now hit $40 million in sales? It's being billed as the "As Seen On TV" product of the year. What happened to the Snuggie? Ah, well . . here's a link to the story on CNBC's website: http://www.cnbc.com/id/38788941
Obligatory disclaimer: This blog is for information only. Past results do not guarantee future performance. All financial decisions involve risk and there are no guarantees. The suggestions above are for informational purposes only and the blogger is not liable for any losses incurred as a result of actual investment activity on the part of the reader.
Happy Trading!
The stock I'm interested in this week is a big cap: Cummins (CMI). They're traded on the NYSE and designs, manufactures, distributes and services diesel and natural gas engines, electric power generation systems, and engine-related component products worldwide. CMI experienced a mild pullback on Friday, in lower volume, and closed at $79.51. It's been as high as $82 just recently after clearing resistance around $76 in mid-July. Fundamentally, it looks like they are a pretty sound company. Sales growth last quarter was clocked at 32% and their EPS was 317%. It looks like it could pullback a little bit from here. My entry point for this stock would be between $74 and $79. My first target is $82, but I think long term, this stock could run up to over $100.
And check this out: Did you know that the Shake Weight has now hit $40 million in sales? It's being billed as the "As Seen On TV" product of the year. What happened to the Snuggie? Ah, well . . here's a link to the story on CNBC's website: http://www.cnbc.com/id/38788941
Obligatory disclaimer: This blog is for information only. Past results do not guarantee future performance. All financial decisions involve risk and there are no guarantees. The suggestions above are for informational purposes only and the blogger is not liable for any losses incurred as a result of actual investment activity on the part of the reader.
Happy Trading!
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Daily Stock Pick of the Day - Fri., Aug 20 2010
Ouch! The market sold off in heavy fashion, thanks in part to some economic news that threatens the already fragile economy. First-time jobless claims rose the highest level since November 2009. The Philly Fed Reserve's monthly survey of economic activity fell by over 7.5%, it's lowest level in more than a year. This came after rising 5% in July.
Even with such a sour economic environment, I'm keeping a watch list of stocks I'd like to purchase when things look a little better. One of the stocks I'm looking at is Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). I like this for a number of reasons. First, they always have customers lined up out the door. They're incredibly popular because they offer fresh fixings with what they call "ethically sourced" meat and vegetables. They're also a "green" company. Their eateries are designed in an eco-friendly manner. From a fundamental picture, they look pretty strong. They have rising earnings, and they are planning expansions throughout the country. The majority of their stores are in the West and South, but look for more stores to open in the Northeastern part of the U.S. To date, they've launced 1,000 eateries nationwide. They recently opened a unit in London and the word is that they will be opening eateries in France and Canada in the coming year.
Today's closing price is $147.92 and I don't think this is a bad entry point. A pullback to the 50-day (around $144 range) could also give you a good starting point in which to build a stake.
Keep an eye on it. Comments welcome.
Happy Trading!
Obligatory disclaimer: This blog is for information only. Past results do not guarantee future performance. All financial decisions involve risk and there are no guarantees. The suggestions above are simply suggestions and the blogger is not liable for any losses incurred as a result of actual investment activity on the part of the reader.
Even with such a sour economic environment, I'm keeping a watch list of stocks I'd like to purchase when things look a little better. One of the stocks I'm looking at is Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). I like this for a number of reasons. First, they always have customers lined up out the door. They're incredibly popular because they offer fresh fixings with what they call "ethically sourced" meat and vegetables. They're also a "green" company. Their eateries are designed in an eco-friendly manner. From a fundamental picture, they look pretty strong. They have rising earnings, and they are planning expansions throughout the country. The majority of their stores are in the West and South, but look for more stores to open in the Northeastern part of the U.S. To date, they've launced 1,000 eateries nationwide. They recently opened a unit in London and the word is that they will be opening eateries in France and Canada in the coming year.
Today's closing price is $147.92 and I don't think this is a bad entry point. A pullback to the 50-day (around $144 range) could also give you a good starting point in which to build a stake.
Keep an eye on it. Comments welcome.
Happy Trading!
Obligatory disclaimer: This blog is for information only. Past results do not guarantee future performance. All financial decisions involve risk and there are no guarantees. The suggestions above are simply suggestions and the blogger is not liable for any losses incurred as a result of actual investment activity on the part of the reader.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Daily Stock Pick of the Day - Thurs Aug 19, 2010
Stocks were up intraday today, but sold off some of their gains before the close. Still, we booked modest gains across the board. Much to my surprise, Target (TGT) posted strong quarterly earnings. TGT rose 2% in big volume to close at $51.95.
The Nasdaq cleared it's 50-day moving average today. A recent series of higher highs and higher lows has the Q's (QQQQ) poised for a rally if it can remain above its 50-day over the next 5-7 days.
In yesterday's post, I mentioned Agrium (AGU). It closed today just above my buy point of $69.20 in brisk volume. It had a healthy close today at $69.87 and, yes, I like it at this price.
The stock I'm looking at today is Cliff's Natural Resources (CLF). It's seen a big move in recent days, but I think the momentum is still clearly behind it. I'm looking at it from a value standpoint. It's currently around $63 per share, but this stock has room to move into the $72-$75 range between now and the end of the year. I'd recommend scaling into a position and buying on some pullbacks. $63 is a good entry point, but if given the chance, I'd pick up some shares between $58 and $60 (assuming the volume on the pullback is light). In light of the recent volatility, I'd use a stop to limit my losses. I'm using tight stops these days, somewhere around 2% - 3% of my entry price. I'd rather get stopped out than suffer a deep downdraft.
Thoughts? Suggestions? Comments welcome.
Obligatory disclaimer: This blog is for information only. Past results do not guarantee future performance. All financial decisions involve risk and there are no guarantees. The suggestions above are simply suggestions and the blogger is not liable for any losses incurred as a result of actual investment activity on the part of the reader.
Happy Trading!
The Nasdaq cleared it's 50-day moving average today. A recent series of higher highs and higher lows has the Q's (QQQQ) poised for a rally if it can remain above its 50-day over the next 5-7 days.
In yesterday's post, I mentioned Agrium (AGU). It closed today just above my buy point of $69.20 in brisk volume. It had a healthy close today at $69.87 and, yes, I like it at this price.
The stock I'm looking at today is Cliff's Natural Resources (CLF). It's seen a big move in recent days, but I think the momentum is still clearly behind it. I'm looking at it from a value standpoint. It's currently around $63 per share, but this stock has room to move into the $72-$75 range between now and the end of the year. I'd recommend scaling into a position and buying on some pullbacks. $63 is a good entry point, but if given the chance, I'd pick up some shares between $58 and $60 (assuming the volume on the pullback is light). In light of the recent volatility, I'd use a stop to limit my losses. I'm using tight stops these days, somewhere around 2% - 3% of my entry price. I'd rather get stopped out than suffer a deep downdraft.
Thoughts? Suggestions? Comments welcome.
Obligatory disclaimer: This blog is for information only. Past results do not guarantee future performance. All financial decisions involve risk and there are no guarantees. The suggestions above are simply suggestions and the blogger is not liable for any losses incurred as a result of actual investment activity on the part of the reader.
Happy Trading!
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Daily Stock Pick of the Day - Wed., Aug 18 2010
Stocks rallied today and on stronger volume, too. POT really gapped up, today, almost 28%. It looks like BHP Billiton made an offer, but it wasn't good enough for POT, so expect a bidding war. Not to be outdone, Agrium (AGU) also rallied during the day today, but closed in the lower half of the trading range. I would have like to have seen AGU finish the day stronger. That being said, I still really like this stock. If it can close at or above $69.20 on strong volume (preferably about 1.5 times it's average daily volume), it would be a good one to hold going into the end of the year. My target on this is about $72.
I still think the market has a mild appetite for moving higher at this point. I'm using caution before entering into any long stock positions right now. It seems like this market is still very news driven, so I expect a lot of volatility. Don't be afraid to use your stops.
Obligatory disclaimer: Past results do not guarantee future performance. The suggestions above are simply suggestions and the blogger is not liable for any losses incurred as a result of actual investment activity on the part of the reader.
Happy Trading!
I still think the market has a mild appetite for moving higher at this point. I'm using caution before entering into any long stock positions right now. It seems like this market is still very news driven, so I expect a lot of volatility. Don't be afraid to use your stops.
Obligatory disclaimer: Past results do not guarantee future performance. The suggestions above are simply suggestions and the blogger is not liable for any losses incurred as a result of actual investment activity on the part of the reader.
Happy Trading!
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